After months of unemployment, restaurants and bars added 286,000 workers in February, the latest sign of the industry recovering after a long and cold winter.
In the second half of 2020 and the new year, bitter cold and the resurgence of new Covid-19 cases hurt the hotel again.
“By 2021, so far, it looks worse than it was in November and October,” said Amit Sharma, chief analyst at Rabobank.
But after the winter storms, rising temperatures began to affect parts of the country. Vaccine distribution started slowly, but accelerated rapidly in the past month. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of Thursday morning, more than 54 million Americans (about 16% of the population) had received at least one dose. The approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine (distributed with the help of Merck) will accelerate that number.
David Hincks, senior director at Technomic, said: “If you look at our forecasts, in the second half of 2021 and most of the time in 2022, the vaccine deployment rate will be the same.
In response to the accelerating vaccine deployment, states have begun to relax and even prepare to remove capacity restrictions in restaurants and other venues, although officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend slowing down and reducing restrictions. Since the start of March, at least 35 states have loosened restrictions in some way. For example, Connecticut plans to allow restaurants to open their doors to full capacity by the end of March.
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But recent industry surveys are showing clear signs of pain. The National Restaurant Association conducted a survey of 3,000 hotel operators between February 2-10. Respondents are pessimistic about the industry’s recovery efforts. About a third of respondents said it would take 7 to 12 months for the restaurant’s operating conditions to return to normal, while 29% of respondents said it would take at least a year.
After just a few weeks, the moods got lighter, in part due to the progress made in approving the last stimulus package. If the bill is passed, the bill will deposit $ 1,400 in the bank accounts of many consumers, who may choose to uncomfortably spend at least part of the money while traveling. The Democratic Party is working hard to get the plan passed by March 14th.
“What we see when we broadcast the show is that restaurants are taking advantage of it,” Hanks said. “Consumer demand has been suppressed.”
Additionally, the stimulus bill also includes a plan to provide grants of up to $ 10 million if restaurants lose money last year. The money can help freelance restaurants pay their bills, hire employees, and cater to them to keep up with the warmth of spring. 14% of NRA respondents said that if they receive no federal assistance, they may close their doors or for sure in the next three months.
According to Australia’s recovery, even with another stimulus package, Sharma is not hoping that once everyone can use the Covid-19 vaccine, the supply industry will immediately resume.
“After cases dropped to one digit in August and July, it took another six months for total food service sales to reach pre-pandemic levels,” he said. Some time for consumers to recover from their pre-pandemic habits. ”
Technomic’s latest forecast predicts that between 2019 and 2021, the compound annual growth rate for restaurants and bars will only decrease 3.6%.
Based on communications with restaurant operators, Sharma expects the fastest annual growth in the second quarter of this year. Not only is this the hardest-hit quarter of last year due to the lockdown, but controlling stimulus measures and distributing vaccines will boost sales as well.
Hincks said he hopes the Fourth of July will be a turning point, a sign of when the restaurant industry’s recovery will already begin to accelerate.
For the time being, the trend continues to tilt. Fast food restaurant prices are low, and they have take-out experience, so they can recover faster than full service restaurants. The rest